Friday, 28 October 2016

29/10/16 Straight From The Trainers Mouth

Best Win Bet: 3.55 Wetherby Ozzie The Oscar 4/5  &
3.30 Newmarket (Rowley) Makzeem 11/4

Best EW Bet: 3.00 Ascot Diego Du Charmil 7/1




Paul Nicholls
1.55 Ascot San Benedeto 6/1
Has earned his keep this summer, jumps soundly, needs good ground and will have a little holiday when the rain arrives. After winning in May and June, San Benedeto was fourth in a better race last time at Newton Abbot early this month. This handicap looks a more suitable target off a mark of 137 and I am hoping that fitting cheek pieces can help him find a bit more improvement.
★★★★☆
2.25 Ascot Ulck Du Lin 8/1
Found life a fair bit harder last season after his success the previous campaign but still ran some solid races in defeat. He is a fun horse who should continue to pay his way. Ulck Du Lin seems to enjoy running at Ascot, has won this race before and goes well fresh though I have a feeling he is handicapped to the limit.
★★☆☆☆
2.45 Wetherby Silsol 13/2
An admirable horse who is as tough as they come, so consistent and ended last season on a career high mark. He doesn't know how to run a bad race and will continue to give his owners a lot of fun. Silsol wasn't beaten far at Sandown in April by Ptit Zig who went on to win the French Champion Hurdle on his next start. Although he always comes on for a run he should do well here as he is the highest rated horse in this race, doesn't have to carry any penalties and goes really well for Jack Sherwood. He would prefer softer ground, however.
★★★☆☆
3.00 Ascot Diego Du Charmil 7/1
Justified our confidence in the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham in March and won nicely on his comeback at Chepstow three weeks ago where he jumped very well as usual. He looks to have come on for that run and while this is more competitive as you would expect for a £60,000 race he is one of ours that enjoys the current good ground. Decent chance.
★★★★☆
3.00 Ascot Modus 11/1
Was an exciting recruit last season and jumped well from the start though he was initially a bit too impatient for his own good. Modus has been in lively form at home and will appreciate the good ground but I am worried that he might just need this to put him spot-on as he came in a little later than most of my team. So it is possible this race might just come a bit too soon for him
★★☆☆☆
3.20 Wetherby Virak 8/1
I am already thinking of the Grand National for this fellow who is a pleasure to train and kept running into classy, better handicapped horses last season. This is a good starting point for Virak who is in fine form at home, goes well fresh, and continues to improve.
★★★☆☆
3.35 Ascot Saphir Du Rheu 10/3
This was the obvious choice from his three entries this weekend as he has been given a chance by the handicapper on his mark of 152. I admit he has something to prove after last season when I thought the world was at his feet following his opening success at Carlisle. He was undeniably disappointing subsequently and, I suspect, was never right as he wasn't finishing his races. Nick Scholfield is adamant Saphir Du Rheu needs good ground. I've given him plenty of graft over the last three months, really drilled him, yet he still looks burly to my eye. Then again I thought the same before Carlisle a year ago. I'm hoping he can get back on track this winter starting here and if he runs to his best he must have a good chance off this lower mark.
★★★★☆
4.10 Ascot Clic Work 6/1
Inclined to be headstrong last season when he struggled with his breathing. We sorted that out in the summer and he returned with an improved display when a close second at Stratford earlier this month, looking a bit green in the closing stages but finishing in a manner that suggested he will improve for the step up in trip here on a stiffer track.
If he does then Clic Work should go close
★★★★☆.
4.45 Ascot Peak To Peak 9/2
A strong, good looking son of the Derby winner Authorized, he joined us last season after winning his only start on the flat in France. I like what I see from his work at home and he has done plenty of schooling ahead of his introduction to hurdles here. He is a nice prospect who will probably want two-and-a-half miles but this is a good starting point.
★★★☆☆
4.45 Ascot Bagad Bihoue 2/1
On quite a roll after a lucrative summer and autumn, winning impressively again at Wincanton last Sunday with plenty in hand. Looking at him at home you wouldn't know he's been so busy, so hopefully he can continue to make hay while the sun shines for his enthusiastic group of owners as he is at his best on good ground. I am expecting another solid run here despite his penalties and he could be out again again next weekend.
★★★★☆
5.20 Ascot Coup De Pinceau 7/4
Bought as a three-year-old from France he was given plenty of time before winning on his debut for us in a Ludlow bumper in April. While his schooling over hurdles has been excellent I'm giving him another run in a bumper here for experience ridden by our 7lbs claimer Stan Sheppard who shone in victory on Brahms De Clermont in a tight finish at Cheltenham a week ago.
★★★★☆

Dan Skelton
2.25 Ascot – Yorkist 11/4
Yorkist is a horse I think has a big day in him. His form for Micky Hammond last year was good and he will love the ground at Ascot. I feel he can win a big race but whether that’s first time out, or second race out or whenever I just don’t know but I think he’ll win a good one. I’m really looking forward to getting going with him.
★★★★☆
3.00 Ascot – Ch’ Tibello
Ch’ Tibello was second on this card last year to Altior who went on to win the Supreme. He has to carry top weight today but that’s because he’s the best horse in the race. He is a lovely horse who shows a lot of pace. The ground should be perfect for him and I do like him. He has an obvious chance in conditions that will really suit him.
★★★★☆
3.35 Ascot – Workbench 20/1
Workbench has been magic for the yard. He likes the ground and he just about gets three miles so we will ride him patiently and pick up what we can. He doesn’t owe anyone anything and he’s a super consistent horse which is probably why he only wins once a year.
★★☆☆☆
2.10 Wetherby – Stephanie Frances 3/1
Stephanie Frances is equal top weighted in this. She is going to have a couple more runs before she goes to the sales or goes in foal, so I’m just trying to fill the pot up as much as I can before she goes. She is best off a break and put up three great performances over the summer. The ground is ideal, the track should be perfect for her, so there is no reason not to think she won’t run very well.
★★★★☆
4.20 Ayr – Throthehatch 7/4
I entered Throthethatch in a few races over the weekend but I think the ground at Ayr is softer than elsewhere so decided to run there, and it’s worked out well because the chase has fewer runners and is worth more money than the other options. I’m happy with him. He seems to have come out of his last race well; he looked well handicapped over hurdles so I’m hoping he’s still well handicapped over fences.
★★★★☆
4.55 Ayr – Work In Progress 5/2
I think Work In Progress will love the track, and we’ll run here before he goes chasing. I was going to go straight over fences but once I saw this race and its value I thought it was worth going for. He’s the best horse in the race and he’s fit and well, but he will improve for the run too. I think he will do himself justice in this race as he is very good fresh.
★★★★★


Tom Scudamore
3.20 Wetherby Dynaste 10/1
Then it will be great to get back on Dynaste in the Charlie Hall at 3.20. He’s not getting any younger and it will be a hard race against the likes of Cue Card but he seems in good order. We’ve been really pleased with him at home and this looks an ideal opportunity to try and pick up some more prize money. Of course it always gets tougher as they get older but it’s all about whether they still have the old sparkle, and he’s doing all the right things at home and showing us all the right signs. He seems as well as ever, and he’s eligible for Veteran’s races as well now so that gives us more options.
★★★☆☆
5.05 Wetherby Kalondra 11/2
I then ride Kalondra in the 5.05 who has been running well all summer. Neil has always thought a great deal about this horse and he’s now beginning to get his act together. He’s won his last two and deserves to go up in class and I think he has a cracking chance. Neil is very straightforward to ride for. I’ve had a fair bit of success riding for him over the last couple of years. With any luck he’ll train the best part of a hundred winners this season as he’s had a cracking start. He’s a very good trainer.
★★★★☆

Nicky Henderson
3.35 Ascot - HADRIANS APPROACH 12/1
I would have liked to have run TRIOLO D’ALENE to be honest with you but the ground is going to be too quick so it’s left to Hadrian to do the business! He’s a very big horse and I’m trying to get him ready for the Hennessy so I need to get a run into him. He might well need the run, but he has got to have a run so it makes sense to come here and the ground should be ok for him. 
★★★☆☆
4.10 Ascot - MINSTREL ROYALE 10/1
He’s a half-brother to BARBER’S SHOP and before you ask, there are no comparisons at all! He’s a lovely horse in his own right who is going the right way and it’s a nice little race to start him off in. I would be happy enough with him on the ground and he’s in very good form. He should go well, I hope.
★★★☆☆
4.45 Ascot – CULTIVATOR 11/4
He’s another one who is going the right way and I think he won the bumper on this card last year so we know he likes the track. I have no qualms about the ground for him and have been particularly happy with him in his work; in fact he jumps very well. He had one run over hurdles and pretended he didn’t know what he was doing, but he certainly did know what he was doing actually, and was taking the mick so he’s done plenty of schooling to remind him. He could be one of my better novices but he needs to learn to settle as when he won his bumper here he was terribly free and won despite that so we know he has the class. He wants good ground which is why he’s coming out at this time of the year and this is a nice small field where he can hopefully sit quietly in behind and relax. He’s still a Maiden but hopefully he won’t be by tomorrow evening!
★★★★★

Richard Hannon
1:20 Newmarket – ASHWAQ 7/1
A lovely well-bred filly by Sepoy who is a sire I really like and she makes her debut here but will definitely need it for experience and obviously fitness too. She’s not overly big and has plenty of growing to do.
★★★☆☆
2:55  Newmarket–PEAK PRINCESS  20/1

PEAK PRINCESS hated the ground at Newbury and should be much happier here. She is a nice filly who should be able to get into the first three.


★★★★☆
2:55  Newmarket– BILLESDON BESS 14/1

BILLESDON BESS was impressive on debut and she couldn’t have done any more than win. She has a little chance and tomorrow will give us a good guide as to where we are at.


★★★
3:30 Newmarket– IN THE RED 10/1
He’s a horse I really like but we’re struggling to find the best trip for him and while he’s yet to win in three runs this season he’s shown more than enough and he has freshness on his side, which counts for plenty at this time of the year. I think he’ll like the ground and his winning chance can’t be far away as he’s been running solid races and not getting beaten far. He was a horse that carried quite a lot of condition so we gelded him last back-end just to lighten him up a bit. He’s certainly been working well at home so I know he’s fit and well, that’s for sure!
★★★☆☆
4:40 Newmarket– ESTIDHKAAR 10/3

Estidhkaar is stepping up to the mile and if he relaxes I can see him going very close here. That will give us a good guide for next year.


★★★★☆
4:40 Newmarket -  KOOL KOMPANY 16/1

Kool Kompany looks a bit up against it here but he is in good form and if he can sneak in the first four then he may be a horse to head out to Dubai with.


 ★★★☆☆
5:40 Chelmsford– SUNSET DREAM 11/2
A winner at the course over a mile who steps back down to 7f here but she’s not devoid of speed so I have no qualms with that and she didn’t like the soft ground last time so the return to the All Weather will suit much better. She had a long layoff over the summer so is quite fresh and it’s good to be getting going with her again. I think she every chance of going well under Hollie Doyle who has been doing really well this season and is great value for her 3lb claim.
★★★☆☆
6:10 Chelmsford – SANS SOUCI BAY 6/1
This will be his first start in a Handicap and his mark of 71 looks fair but he’s up against a few winners and has his first run on the All Weather so I couldn’t really back him with confidence.
★★☆☆☆



Hugo Palmer
2.55 Newmarket (Rowley) Choumicha 9/1
She is a sister to a certain Galileo Gold, and clearly showed the benefit of her Kempton debut effort when winning at Leicester last time. She may have only won by a neck there but Andrea (Atzeni) said she did it nicely, and they did pull well clear of the third. And Andrea also said that she already wanted a mile, which she gets here. On ratings, this doesn't look to be the strongest of Listed races - who knows, there may be three Classic winners in here, and the Montrose often throws up a good filly, but none of these have shown a high level of form to date - and clearly any black type that Choumicha can get here is enormously valuable, given her pedigree.
★★★★☆
4.05 Newmarket (Rowley) Baydar 2/1
This does look an exceptionally strong Listed race, but my colt is improving and he doesn't have that much to find on official ratings to be competitive here. We know that he is progressing at a rate of knots and the form of his Newbury win off 99 last time is very strong; the runner-up won here next time and is now rated 109, and the fourth won at Newbury last weekend. And the third, Imperial Aviator, sold for 270,000gns at the Horses In Training sale this week!
I wouldn't want the ground too fast for him, but good should be fine, and I just hope that his progression curve enables him to be in the mix here. I think it might, but if the ground isn't suitable then he will go to Kempton on Wednesday.
★★★★☆
4.40 Newmarket (Rowley) Murad Khan 6/1
He got balloted out of the valuable handicap at Ascot on Champions' Day, which was very irritating as I thought his mark of 99 would have seen him right there at the business end of the race. This is a different kettle of fish, racing in a Listed race against horses rated 110+, but I have always thought a lot of this horse and I don't think he will be disgraced.
I have been very happy with him since Thirsk, he is ground-versatile, and he goes into the race in great shape. His half-brother Ascription hated Newmarket, so hopefully it will be different for him.
★★★★☆

Richard Johnson
2.45 Wetherby Native River 13/2
t’s great to be getting back on Native River in the West Yorkshire Hurdle (2.45pm). He gave me one of my best days of the season in April when he won the Grade One novice chase at Aintree. He’s back over hurdles here as a prep run for next month’s Hennessy Gold Cup and this looks a good opportunity to give him a blowout. I suppose the fear in the back of my mind is that this might not be a stiff enough test of stamina on the ground. But I can guarantee, given the form the Tizzard team are in, that he won’t lack for fitness and should put up a good show. He looks an exciting horse and the right type for the Hennessy. He’s won at Newbury and is an end-to-end galloper. You have to stay in the Hennessy and he’ll definitely do that. Ballyoptic looks to be the one to beat on Saturday. He’s won all four over hurdles and is very progressive. If In Doubt is another improver back over the smaller obstacles. We were unlucky not to win the Pertemps at the Festival in March. It looks like a very interesting race.
★★☆☆☆
3.20 Wetherby Menorah 10/1
Cue Card is the one we’re all aiming at in the Charlie Hall (3.20pm), but Menorah beat him here two years ago, so it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that we could do it again. The old boy schooled really well the other day and is a pleasure to have around the place. He’s very straightforward and always runs his race. It was great to win the Oaksey Chase at Sandown for the third consecutive year back in April. That will be his big end-of-season target again and it would be wonderful to win it for a fourth year. He ran in a couple of handicaps over the summer, but that’s just because of the ground. Decent ground is so important to him and it may be that Saturday’s race is his last until Sandown in April. I’d love to pick holes in Cue Card but on ratings, and all known form, he is the one to beat. Blaklion is another you have to respect as an RSA winner, and Nigel Twiston-Davies’ horses are also in great form.
★★★☆☆
3.55 Wetherby Ozzie The Oscar 4/5
Funnily enough, my best chance of a winner on the day is probably in the next race as Ozzie The Oscar looks to have a great shout in the novice hurdle (3.55pm) He won his first three over hurdles in the spring before finishing a decent second to West Approach who ran well at Cheltenham last week. This is his last chance to run in a novice hurdle and he’ll love the good ground, so he has a great chance of adding to his tally.
★★★★★
5.05 Wetherby Apple Of Our Eye 6/1
My final ride on Saturday is Apple Of Our Eye for Charlie Longsdon in the closing handicap hurdle (5.05pm). He’s very straightforward and ran well on his reappearance to finish second. It’s a competitive race, but Charlie’s horses are in flying form and he looks to have a decent each-way chance.
★★★☆☆

Aiden Coleman
1.55 Ascot Crimson Ark 3/1
Crimson Ark has his first run over fences under Rules in the Ascot Underwriting Chase. He won a point-to-point in Ireland which will stand him in good stead and I’m sure he will have been well schooled by Emma Lavelle. He’s had a cracking start to the season, with a nice win at Fontwell and then a close second in a Grade Three at Chepstow. I’m really looking forward to riding him.
★★★★☆
3.00 Ascot My Manekineko  20/1
My Manekineko is a hold-up horse so the lack of pace counted against him at Chepstow last time. He still stayed on well and a strong pace in the William Hill Handicap Hurdle will help his chance.
★★★☆☆


David Pipe
2.35 Ayr Mango Cap 9/2
Mango Cap carrying top weight in the handicap hurdle (less David Noonan's 3lbs claim).  He was a winner at Perth on good ground last time and is 4lbs higher this afternoon and has sound prospects once again.
★★★★☆
3.20 Wetherby Dynaste 11/1
Dynaste makes his seasonal reappearance in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby this afternoon.  Our former Ryanair Chase winner has been an amazing servant down the years and he has been in good form at home, the trouble is it is a £100,000 race and as you would expect, it is fiercely competitive.  Apparently old adversary Cue Card is in good order and he looks like the one to beat.
★★★☆☆
3.45 Ayr Impulsive American  11/4
He has been in great form on the flat, over hurdles and fences this season.
★★★★☆


Roger Charlton
1.50 Newmarket (Rowley) Yellowhammer 7/1
Yellowhammer ran a nice race at Leicester first time out, when she was draw and then trapped wide without any cover. She ran a little green that day, before showing good speed to pick up down the outside. She just tired in the final furlong, to finish 4th. Today she is drawn in the middle and she should be able to get cover just behind the leaders, which will be more suitable. She has a bit to find on form with the favourite, but she should step forward.
★★★☆☆
3.30 Newmarket (Rowley) Makzeem 11/4
Makzeem travelled supremely well at Doncaster last time before finishing very tamely. He had a bad draw and had to use up petrol to get across to the lead, where he travelled like the winner, but was unable to pick up. No excuses were found, so we revert to one mile as he is a quick horse and if he can show his true ability he should go very close today.
★★★★★
 4.05 Newmarket (Rowley) Ayrad 7/1
Ayrad disappointed at Windsor two runs back, where he was a little excited in the paddock beforehand, but ran a better race at Newbury on ground he doesn’t like. Back on his favoured fast ground on a galloping track, we should see a bolder showing today.  He carries a penalty but if he runs like he did at Goodwood, he should be in the mix. He seems to be in great form, looks well, and is a very generous worker. 
★★★★☆

Alan King
2.10 Wetherby Miss Crick 3/1
Miss Crick runs in the Listed Mares Hurdle. She thrived through the summer, winning four races from five starts. Her winning spree started off 113 at Worcester in May, and when she bolted up again on the same track last month she was off a mark of 126. The handicapper put us up another 12lb for that, so she is now off 138, but she is a typical Midnight Legend in that she loves good fast ground so she deserves a shot at this Listed prize, though it’s only two miles and ideally I think she wants two and a half.
★★★☆☆
3.55 Wetherby Zipple Back 4/1
Zipple Back makes his jumping debut in the novices’ hurdle up there. He ran in two bumpers last season and disappointed at Aintree, but our horses could not win an argument at the time and he is now in much better form and has done plenty of schooling. It will be good to get him started.
★★★★☆



Nigel Twiston-Davies
2.45 Wetherby- Ballyoptic 6/4
Has won all four of his hurdles and goes from strength to strength. Wins over various trips and ground show versatility but today's 3m on good is arguably ideal and a five timer does not look out of the question. Ryan Hatch in the saddle.
★★★★☆
3.20 Wetherby - Blaklion 13/2
Won the RSA at the festival and is another that goes from strength to strength. With three chase wins at 3m or 3m+ this is a good trip for him again. Must have a very good chance, Ryan aboard and the pair can go very well.
★★★★☆

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: only a member of this blog may post a comment.