Thursday, 29 December 2016

29/12/16 Straight From The Trainers Mouth



Gordon Elliott
12.35 Limerick Monbeg Rose 8/1
She ran okay over hurdles on her most recent start but for the most part she has been disappointing. She is fit and well but I think she will need to improve a fair bit to get involved here, especially against the likes of Keppols Queen.
★★☆☆☆
1.10 Limerick Crest 6/5
On ratings he is probably the one to beat. He ran well at Navan last time out and he is coming back up in trip now which will hopefully suit him. He should handle the heavy ground fine and he's on good terms with himself so we'd be hopeful of a big run from him.
★★★★★
1.55 Leopardstown Jetstream Jack 25/1
He'll love coming up to this trip but I'm just worried about the ground for him. He's in good form and I'd be confident he could run well in a race like this on soft ground but unfortunately he's unlikely to get that here. He has a bit to find with A Toi Phil on their Punchestown form but he's only had the two runs over fences and you'd be hoping that there is more to come from him.
★★☆☆☆
1.55 Leopardstown Prince Of Scars 14/1
He won his Grade 1 at this meeting last season and we're giving him a chance to win another. He has been a little bit disappointing on his only two starts this season but we're hoping that the step up in trip will see an improved effort. He obviously likes the track but he'd definitely appreciate softer ground though so that's a worry in a race as good as this.
★★★☆☆
1.55 Leopardstown A Toi Phil 16/1
He was disappointing in the Drinmore at Fairyhouse. I'd like to think he's better than that effort but it was a fairly bad run and he has to come back from it now. He'll love the ground but I suppose the trip (3m) is a bit of a worry as this will be the furthest he has gone. Saying that, he did win well over an extended 2m6f at Punchestown and if he can return to that sort of form he could get involved in the finish here.
★★☆☆
2.50 Limerick Holeinthewall Bar 5/1
He was disappointing on his most recent run at Fairyhouse but before that he was running well before he fell on his first start for us at Navan. I'm hoping the Fairyhouse run was just a blip because he's been working well at home and we'd be disappointed if he finished out of the first three here.
★★★☆☆
3.05 Leopardstown Bilko 9/2
He is in a novice handicap for the first time but I'm not sure he's that well treated off a mark of 122. He'll love the trip and he'll love the ground but you'd just be worried that there's a few in the race that could be better treated. He's in good form though and hasn't ran badly for us yet so I'd give him a solid each-way chance.
★★★☆☆
3.25 Limerick Isodon 14/1
He probably wouldn't be near the top of our group of bumper horses this season but he ran okay in the maiden hurdle Brelade won at Navan. He has come on from that fitness wise and he's running in a bumper now to get a bit more experience. I can still see him running well and hopefully he'll get himself into the top three.
★★★☆☆
3.35 Leopardstown Burren Life 4/5
We like him a lot and he won't be far away from winning this. He ran very well first time out at Punchestown behind Willie Mullins' Come To Me when he was just a bit green. Hopefully he'll have learned a great deal from that experience and he's definitely a much fitter horse for this race.
★★★★★

Malcom Jefferson
1.05 Kelso Black Ivory 15/8
He won nicely both starts to date but he has gone up in weights and needs to improve again. He is dropping back in trip slightly which we feel will be ok but wether the combination of a drop back in trip and possibly better ground suits remains to be seen (hard to say what the ground will ride like!).
★★★★☆

Nick Alexander
1.05 Kelso Jet Master 7/1
He has been in good form over fences recently but is 8lb better off over hurdles and you would hardly describe his jumping over fences as an asset so we thought it was worth a go back in this sphere. He is the veteran of the field and giving weight to them all so it is a big ask
★★★☆☆
1.40 Kelso Gold Opera 4/1
 A winner last time at Ayr he also carries top weight over a trip that may prove too sharp for him on this ground, it’s a decent prize though and he comes into the race in better form than most of his rivals so it is worth a shot
★★★☆☆
2.15 Kelso Jolie Crickette 6/4
Should be happier in this company and on the better ground, she has plenty of experience jumping in France
★★★★☆
2.15 Kelso Queen Of Avalon 50/1
it is the hurdling debut for the latter who ran inexplicably poorly in her last bumper
★★☆☆☆
2.45 Kelso Heres To Harry 100/1
runs from more than two stone wrong, crazy really but he needs to run in a 0-100 handicap and we have to run in a novice first to be eligible so we don’t really have any other option
★☆☆☆☆
2.45 Kelso Calivigny 9/1
2.45 Kelso Marlee Massie 5/2
Marlee Massie (Brian Hughes) and Calivigny (Lucy), both are in good heart and should build on their latest runs.
★★★☆☆

Julia Feilden
1.15 Southwell Valley Lodge 33/1
Has been struggling with the handicapper since finishing a narrow second at Haydock in the summer. His run at the course last time showed he can handle the surface so we will go there hoping that the drop in grade and application of headgear can see him fare better.
★★☆☆☆
3.30 Southwell Cuban Queen 10/1
We bought Cuban Queen cheaply at Tattersalls last month and she has settled in well to our way of doing things.  She is bred to appreciate a dirt surface so hopefully that can see her improve on her old form.
★★★☆☆

David Pipe
12.55 Doncaster Work 15/8
 Work bids to make amends for her unlucky reverse on her hurdling debut - she was in front and going well when unseating Tom Scudamore at the penultimate hurdle at Ffos Las.  She showed plenty of ability on that occasion and I think a similar level of form would be good enough for her to get her head in front.
★★★★★
1.30 Doncaster The Two Amigos 25/1
While he would need to improve on what he has shown so far, he was a winner of an Irish point-to-point and he could outrun his odds of 25/1
★★★☆☆
3.10 Doncaster La Vaticane 15/2
Our slick jumping mare has top weight of 12-2 to carry but she is a well-made type who ran with plenty of credit over the National fences at Aintree last time.  Her best form would give her every chance and she is likely to be around the 6/1 mark.
★★★★☆

Richard Guest
12.15 Southwell Sakhalin Star 6/1
we have Sakhalin Star making a quick reappearance and he comes out of stall 1 of the 9 runners. Sakhalin Star was 4th at Wolverhampton on Boxing Day from a bad draw and was running on late, so he is stepping up in trip a bit today which we hope will help him, and he has only had one try on the surface at Southwell, just over a year ago where he probably wasn’t at his best so we can’t really say if he handled the surface or not on that performance. He has always been a horse that has preferred a bit of cut in the ground so we do think the deeper surface at Southwell may suit him but we just don’t know for sure. It is not the strongest looking of contests on paper and with a relatively small field and Sakhalin Star having a reasonable draw for once, we hope that he can run a good race today as he has run well on his last two appearances without much luck and he seems to have come out of Monday’s race in good order. It looks a race where it is well worth us letting him take his chance and if he does go on the surface, he should have an each way shot.
★★★☆☆
12.45 Southwell Hydrant 8/1
we have Hydrant drawn in stall 2 of the 9 runners. Hydrant won a maiden over today’s course and distance nearly 7 years ago, and whilst he hasn’t reproduced similar form on his visits to Southwell since, he is a horse who wins his share of races and he came back to form last time out at Wolverhampton where he ran a tremendous race to finish a close 2nd in what was probably a stronger contest than this today. The obvious danger in this race is the admirable veteran Stand Guard who is currently the joint record holder for most career all weather wins with 27 victories and is no doubt going to be primed to try and take the record solely today. Looking at the other opposition in the race, they are not anything special on paper and most of them are not in the best of recent form. If Hydrant reproduced a similar performance to his run at Wolverhampton last time out he would have to go well today and whilst Stand Guard looks the horse to beat, with him being a 12 year old and shouldering a 6lb penalty, it isn’t going to be an easy task for him and if there is a horse that may take advantage of any chinks in his armour, Hydrant looks like one of the more likely candidates.
★★★★☆
3.30 Southwell Lady Bacchus 11/2
She is drawn in stall 11 of the 14 runners. Contests like this are always tricky races to judge with them tending to feature inconsistent horses and long standing maidens. It is Lady Bacchus’ first visit to Southwell so we don’t know for certain how she will take to the unique surface, but we think she should handle the surface and one of her half brothers won a couple of times at the track which gives hope that she could take to it too. The positive we look at with Lady Bacchus compared to most opponents in this race is that she has been in consistent form since returning to the track recently and has been running solid races and arguably has been unlucky not to have got her head in front more than the once. The big question with her is whether she takes to the track. If she does she has to have a great chance in today’s race.
★★★★☆

Willie Mullins
12.50 Leopardstown Battleford 2/5
Battleford (Ruby) runs in the 2m 4f maiden hurdle. We were a little disappointed with his run at Navan but he will be much better suited by this trip. He seems in good form and we are expecting him to go close.
★★★★★
1.20 Leopardstown Daisys Gift 7/1
Daisy’s Gift (Danny Mullins) fell in a novice chase last time at Cork and we are running her here to give her a confidence boost. She might get some more black type.
★★★☆☆
1.20 Leopardstown Lets Dance 1/2
Let’s Dance (Ruby) is in good order and this is her trip. She will like the ground and hopefully she will be good enough again here.
★★★★☆
1.55 Leopardstown Briar Hill 7/1
Ruby has elected to ride Briar Hill who will be much better suited by this trip than when he was second at Navan last time.
★★★★☆
1.55 Leopardstown Bellow Mome 20/1
Bellow Mome (Danny Mullins) has improved since he won at Thurles last month and could be each-way value.
★★★☆☆
2.30 Leopardstown Footpad 16/1
Footpad (Daryll Jacob) is a course and distance winner but might find this ground too fast.
★★☆☆☆
2.30 Leopardstown Nichols Canyon 1/2
Nichols Canyon (Ruby) won this race last year and we are hoping he can repeat that feat again today.
★★★★★

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