Thursday, 8 September 2016

09th September 2016



Best Win Chance: 1:55 Donny - Nemoralia 4/5
Best Ew Chance: 5:50 Salibsury – Show Legend 6/1



Hugo Palmer

14:30 Doncaster - Afandem 5/1
He hasn't missed a beat since winning his Group 3 at Chantilly at the start of the month, or left an oat, and looks great.

I probably shouldn't look to downplay the merit of his win last time but I find the fact that he is now rated 109 truly remarkable. I am aware that he won impressively but it wasn't the greatest of Group 3s, and a rating of 109 just doesn't stack up in my opinion looking at the form of the second and third going into the race.

It doesn't matter, as he is obviously not going to be running in handicaps, but to put it into context Galileo Gold was rated 105 after winning the Vintage Stakes and 110 after being beaten little over a length in the Group 1 Lagardere last season.

Anyway, he is improving and is a very fast colt, and has won at the course, so we have to be hopeful in what is a very competitive race. Ideally, we wouldn't want the ground to dry up too much for him but I imagine it may possibly be good, perhaps good to firm in places, on Friday and hopefully that will be okay.
★★★★

15:05 Doncaster - Wall Of Fire 4/1
The manner of his victory in the Melrose surprised me - at one point he looked as though he may finish nearer last than first - but he picked up very impressively to win by 2 ¾ lengths.

An 8lb rise in the circumstances was predictable, and probably very fair, and hopefully there is plenty more to come from him. And Josephine (Gordon) takes 3lb off.

He certainly has a progressive profile - he was badly hampered at Goodwood the time before, so that was a throw-out run - and I would hope that he would develop into a stakes-race stayer next season and get 2m.

He has taken the York race very well and, while he handles most ground, I am hoping it doesn't dry up too much for him, as with Afandem.
★★★★

16:15 Doncaster - Majoris 10/1
He simply got stuck in the mud at Sandown last time. They had 5mm in the morning and the ground then turned good to soft, and that did not suit him. He relished the fast ground when an impressive winner of his nursery at Newmarket, so he is one of my Doncaster runners on Friday who won't mind quickening conditions at all.
★★★☆☆

16:50 Doncaster - Banish 14/1
He broke his nose coming out of the stalls at Windsor last time, and had a nose bleed for three days afterwards, so you can ignore that run.

He hasn't had the best of luck health-wise this season - he was found to have an irregular heartbeat after disappointing at Epsom - but he seems to have benefitted from his break after Windsor and the conditions of this 0-85 Classified Stakes suit him as he is rated 85.
★★★☆☆


Ryan Moore

13:55 Doncaster - Same Jurisdiction 9/1

I think Nemoralia will take all the beating judged on her Group 1 form and her impressive York win last time. She is a high-class filly given 7f and decent ground. However, she doesn't have that much in hand on official figures, so if she does run below par, then hopefully my filly is the one to take advantage.
I don't know much about her to be honest but she is a dual Grade 1 winner in South Africa - and she beat Smart Call in one of those - and hopefully she still retains that level of ability. Lumiere, back in class after running in the Rothschild, is the other obvious one in here.
★★★☆☆

14:30 Doncaster - Legendary Lunch 25/1

This looks a pretty competitive Flying Childers, and the likes of Tis Marvellous, The Last Lion, Yalta and Afandem all set a decent form standard. And you wouldn't rule out Ardad or Prince Of Lir at their best, either. So I think I have my work well and truly cut out on Legendary Lunch, who does not look to have progressed from his Woodcote win.
☆☆☆☆

15:05 Doncaster - Fabricate 9/2

He has run three excellent races in defeat this season, and has only gone up 2lb for them, so hopefully he can still be competitive. There was certainly nothing wrong with his third to Leger runner Muntahaa over an extended 1m5f at Chester last time and he has each-way prospects if seeing out an extra furlong or so on this more galloping track. He is pretty lightly-raced, too. It's clearly a tough race, though.
★★★☆☆

15:40 Doncaster - Clondaw Warrior 7/2

You can give most of these a chance at their best, and even the pair with plenty to find on official figures are improving. In fact, even though Sweet Selection is the lowest-rated in here off a mark of just 87, I think she is progressing and stays well and is a fair price at around 33/1.
You have to give my mount a fair chance, though. He has been in excellent form all year, over jumps and on the Flat, and he ran another blinder when second to the leading stayer in the States when runner-up to Da Big Hoss in the American St Leger at Arlington last time. Willie is a genius with his stayers on the Flat, and I think Clondaw Warrior has a fair chance of going one better than he did in this race last year when a close second to Pallasator. Mizzou is definitely the one to beat, but there is plenty of depth to the race, too.
★★★★

16:15 Doncaster - Senator 6/1

Now, this is a race where you can definitely give all seven a chance. My colt has looked good in winning both his starts over 6f on fast ground at Carlisle and Leicester, and on pedigree and run-style the step up to 7f should suit him. It's clearly a tough race to call, and one full of unexposed horses, but I obviously have a shot on a colt still entered in the Dewhurst.
★★★☆☆


Jeremy Noeseda

1:55 Doncaster – Nemoralia 10/11
Nemoralia has two options - Friday's Group 3 Sceptre Stakes and Saturday's Group 2 Park Stakes - as she seeks to build on her Group 3 victory at York almost a fortnight ago.
Trainer Jeremy Noseda said: "At this moment, granted ground conditions, preference is for the Sceptre. Jamie Spencer retains the ride.
"I have been delighted with her since York. She worked well on Saturday morning and once again i expect her to be very competitive."
★★★★★



Jamie Spencer


1:55 Doncaster – Nemoralia 5/6
The plan is to run in this and then go for the Shadwell Mile on the 8th October at Keeneland. That race fits well for the Breeders Cup. Tepin runs in the Woodbine Mile before heading for California, so the Shadwell Mile will be ideal for Nemoralia.
I think she’s out of the top drawer. She has a great turn of foot. A mile will suit her best but she has no problem adapting to seven furlongs with her speed. Lumiere is a Cheveley Park winner and she got her career back on track at Newmarket. She was disappointing at Deauville but could still be a tough nut to crack with me giving her 3lbs. I will be disappointed if Nemoralia can’t handle these. She’s a push button filly, very easy to ride. She has a good bunch of owners who’ve certainly enjoyed the success they’ve had with her.
★★★★★

3:40 Doncaster – Curbyourenthusiasm 14/1
3.40. He’s been disappointing in his last two starts. Showed nothing at Goodwood and then pretty much the same at York. He hung right the whole way at York. We need to get him back on track. It’s a watching brief really. He didn’t scope great after Goodwood, but then he showed plenty of life in his last piece of work before he went to York. But he didn’t perform again. He’s come back, his tests are all clear, and sometimes you’ve just got to get on with it and run them. He’s a five year old gelding, he’s there to be raced and we’ll try and get him back on track. Newmarket has been hounded all year with a low grade virus, and you just have to run the horses, with some running below par and others running fine. It’s just the way it is. You can’t shut up shop when it’s a low grade virus and the majority of the horses are running to form, with a minority not running well.
★★★☆☆

5:25 Doncaster Nuno Tristan 5/2
He’s a funny horse. I rode him at Ascot where he ran well and he’s one of those horses for which six and a half furlongs could be his distance. Over seven furlongs he can be a bit keen and over six furlongs, I rode him at Goodwood, and he wasn’t quick enough. I think he’d like a shower of rain as he’s best with some juice in the ground. He’s the sort of horse that’s going to pop up in one of these big races and maybe today will be his day.
★★★☆☆

Richard Hannon

2:30 Doncaster – Legendary Lunch 33/1
LEGENDARY LUNCH starts us off in the Group 2 Flying Childers and he is more than up to the task. I felt he needed a break after two runs in good company and since, he has freshened up nicely and this is the ideal starting point for him leading into an autumn campaign.
★★☆☆☆

2:30 Doncatser – Grizzel 66/1
GRIZZEL reverts back to five furlongs, which is the trip she won at earlier in the season. I still feel she is in good form and although she has been busy of late, I’m hoping for a good run today.
★★★☆☆

4:15 Doncaster - Larchmont Lad 6/1
LARCHMONT LAD is in good form in preparation for his run in the Listed Scotsman today and I do feel the step up to the mile can only benefit him. He’s in good form and although this is his toughest test so far, I have no doubt he’s up to the task.
★★★☆☆

5:25 Doncatser – Burnt Sugar 16/1
BURNT SUGAR ran on Wednesday and finished a very creditable third over a trip which I thought was too sharp for him. Today’s trip of six and a half furlongs is an ideal race for him and I’m hoping his good form can continue. He has come out of the race at Leicester in good form and he’s ready to go.
★★★☆☆

Michael Bell

3:05 Doncaster – Fabricate 11/2
He is a horse with plenty of talent and we expect him to be competitive with Ryan Moore in the saddle.
★★★☆☆

4:10 Salisbury – Peace Telegram 12/1
He looks to be getting the hang of things now and although still a little green we expect him to keep improving with his racing.
★★★☆☆

5:50 Salibsury – Show Legend 6/1
We round the day off with SHOW LEGEND who has ability, but is just failing to use it. He has the first time visor applied, which will hopefully be the key to opening the ability that we know he has. He has definitely not shown that so far this season.
★★★★
 

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