TNT Email Service Explained

Hi,

Welcome to The Novice Tipster Email Service Here is just a rundown of what we send to out Clients.

Firstly, we need to make this clear. We do not ‘tip’ horses. All these selections which will be explained below in detail, are all based on stats. They are not our own personal views, except for the odd Tracker Horses.

This email is designed to help you make better selections with your betting, we cannot promise you riches, but we can certainly help try and point you in the right direction. We also do not advise to back everything in the email, some people just follow one section or 2. Depends what works for the individual. We do promote responsible gambling.

If you have any question, please ask

Our First Email goes out between 6pm-10pm every evening (except Sundays)

Stand Out Horses

Our first section and hopefully the best one, here we name the horse with the best stats of the day. It involves several factors, including a trainer and jockey who are in form, and do well at the track, have good form together, but we look at best speed, race form etc as well. Normally only 1 -2 qualifiers, some days you might get 3-4 but It is not often. We have a P&L on this. We were in Profit in 2017.

Tracker Horses

Thee are tracker horses, it’s either something I have seen in a race, horses who have recorded very quick times, or information I am given on a horse. These all go into my ATR Tracker. These normally get sent out 6:30pm so once they are out I can send the email on. These are to only part of the email where it could contain a personal view.

Systems

I run about 70 -100 systems on my database. Some come up rarely however some will come up on a more regular basis. I post up..

1599 runners 848 winnners 53.03% = £586.08 profit.

Name of horse and race underneath

We have some systems which might only come up once or twice a year

84 runners 80 winners 95.24% = £47.35

Obviously when a horse wins or loses the strike rate and profit change, so my systems change it to be correct.

Fave System (has to be fave, and more they qualify for the better)

I run systems based on favourites, the horse has to be favourite at the off, however they do carry a higher strike rate

1. 82.35%

12.40 Leopardstown Contingency – 3^rd at 6/1 – didn’t go off fave so didn’t qualify

2.25 Leopardstown Total Recall – WON @ 5/6f

1.40 Taunton Groundunderrepair – 3^rd at 9/2 – didn’t go off fave

2. 76.92%

12.40 Leopardstown Contingency – 3^rd @ 6/1

2.25 Leopardstown Total Recall – WON @ 5/6f

4.10 Leopardstown Hells Kitchen – PU – qualified, went of fave

The same horses can qualify for more than one, the most is 4 systems, the more they qualify for the better, but they still have to go off favourite

Stalls Analysis (has to be exact runners unless stated)

This is used during the flat season. There are several courses where there is a bias, they stall has to have a clear bias, or sometimes there is several stalls with a joint strike rate which is very high. This can be very helpful especially in forecast betting.

In Form Trainers And Jockeys – last 14 days

This should be self-explanatory – we name the Jockeys and Trainers who have been in form in the last  14 days these were Sunday the 4^th Feb 2018’s selections

R Dickin & C Poste 100%

2.15 Taunton Vocaliser 11/8- WON 7/4

Trainers 45%

Mrs R Dobbin

3.45 Musselburgh Attention Please 4/1 – WON 3/1

Jockeys: 38%

Noel Fehily

1.50 Leopardstown Duc Des Genievres 16/1 – 2^nd 9/1

3.00 Leopardstown Monalee 3/1  - WON 11/4

Best Sires On Going And Track

This is mainly based on AW sires – we can have some big priced winners from this. We look at the best sire of the day and his stats on the going at the track. It doesn’t look at form though.

Interesting Stats

Our favourite section – Its not easy finding a stand out stat every day, and sometimes we don’t, but when there is something its nice to watch. This comment probably not our best, but most recent Interesting stat 3^rd Feb 2018

Nicky Henderson has a 50% strike rate in Novice Chases at Sandown in February. And this race in particular is popular with him. He has sent 9 runners over the years to this race. And has won it 4 times, in fact the last 3 runners he sent all won, including the same connections as this years runner, they won it with Top Notch last year.  Some interesting smaller facts for you. Only 4 runners have been favourite and all 4 won. 6 of them have been French bred and 4 of those won (66.67%)

2.25 Sandown Terrefort 5/4 – WON @ 15/8

Below is a new section, I have not done a P&L on this but from the stats I have gone back on, its runs at around 30%-50% strike rate. This is the ‘start’ of our search for a Stand Out. What we name here is Trainers who have a good strike rate at the course, is in good recent form, has a good strike rate with the particular jockey and goes well at the time of year. If it continues to do ok this might remain a regular feature.

Best Trainer

Best Jockey 

Trends

 We work on trends for all the big races. Any horse fitting the trends are sent in the email 

This has been producing some very good results

EMAIL 2

Normally sent out by 1pm on the day of racing. 12-1 as racing starts later. NH between 1-am-12pm

All views are rated

5 Stars = Big Chance
4 Stars = Expected To Go Close
3 Stars =  Has A Good EW Chance
2 Stars = Might Make The Frame, More Likely To Be Just Outside Places
1 Stars = Very Unlikely To Make The Frame
0 Stars = No Chance

We then highlight the best comment – Best win bet will be a shorter priced horse with minimum 4 stars, and best ew is minimum 3 stars

(1^st Feb 2018)

Best Win Bet: 3:05 Meydan Benbatl 1/1 - WON

Best EW Bet: 4:50 Meydan Janoobi 50/1 - 2^nd

Then the comments would look like this

3:05 Maydan Benbatl 1/1

Benbatl, who’s been very good to me, is in great form having won here three weeks ago. I wasn’t too hard on him there and I’m sure he’ll be ripe for tomorrow’s challenge. My biggest obstacle here is almost certainly the draw which looks a bit awkward. I’ll speak to Saeed beforehand to see what he’d like me to do in terms of tactics. He’s a very exciting horse and one that doesn’t come round too often- he’s a proper Group 2 performer and I’m very pleased to be up on him once again. He rightly goes off favourite for this and hopefully we can get the job done.

★★★★☆

4:50 Meydan Janoobi 50/1

Janoobi needed his first run here, he faded out but he’s improved and he’s well drawn. He can run strongly from the front so the race may suit him. If he gets away he may be hard to peg back.

★★★☆☆

I hope this has explained what we do here for our Email Service. We charge £2.50 a week, £10 a month, or we do a special Weekend Service for £2 or 99p for the Saturday. You can pay a one off of a regular payment weekly or monthly with no contract. http://straightfromthetrainersmouth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/07/the-novice-tipster-email-service.html